India’s Moment in a Fragmented Century
By Ravishankar Kalyanasundaram
There was a time when the world had a centre. For almost eight decades after 1945, global order ran on a predictable axis: the United States set the rules, Europe provided stability, Japan and South Korea powered manufacturing, and China rose within an existing framework of open markets and globalisation. Trade flowed along familiar corridors, technology was collaborative, and geopolitics—though tense—remained largely structured.
That world is gone. And the new world has no single centre at all.
Today, power has become multipolar, fragmented and conditional. Countries no longer align by ideology; they align by interest. Alliances shift faster than supply-chains can adjust. Trade deals are shaped less by economics and more by strategic threat perceptions. Technology has become a weapon, minerals a bargaining chip, and data a territory to be defended. Nations are discovering that their security is no longer just about borders—it is about chips, rare earths, cloud servers, food supplies, energy grids and digital infrastructure.
Business is now geopolitics.
Technology is now strategy.
Supply-chains are now battlegrounds.
Climate is now destiny.
We are living through the most consequential decade of global restructuring since the Second World War. And unlike earlier eras—where India observed the world from an anxious distance—this time India stands at the centre of opportunity. Not because the world wants to help us, but because the world needs alternatives.
The Unravelling of Old Certainties
The U.S.-led liberal order is no longer the default. China’s rise has disrupted old balances, but China itself is no longer the single gravitational force it once was. Its growth is slowing, its demography is ageing, and its political choices have unsettled markets and governments alike. Europe faces its own crises—industrial decline, energy insecurity, political fragmentation. Japan grapples with demographic contraction; Russia with sanctions and isolation. Middle powers—Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil—demand space on their own terms.
This is not a world of blocs. This is a world of fluid coalitions, where nations cooperate in one forum and compete in another. It is a world where global governance is faltering, supply chains are splintering, and every government is recalibrating its exposure to foreign dependence.
In this disorder, resilience becomes the new currency of power.
A New Hierarchy of Strength
In this emerging landscape, the nations that will rise are not those with the loudest slogans or the grandest promises. They are those that can build:
This decade will reward nations that prepare, not nations that hope.
Where Does India Stand?
India sits at a rare intersection of global need and national possibility. The world is searching for a large, stable, democratic, scalable alternative to China. India is the only country that fits the description—on paper.
But a description is not a guarantee.
India’s rise will depend not on sentiment, but on systems; not on demography, but on delivery; not on pride, but on preparation. The world will not shift supply-chains to India out of goodwill. It will shift only if India offers predictable policy, fast infrastructure, clean governance, skilled labour and reliable dispute resolution.
In many ways, India is two nations running at two different speeds. One India builds expressways, wins space missions, attracts global capital, and powers digital innovation. The other India struggles with uneven electricity, slow courts, manual bureaucracy, rural distress, and fragile public services. The opportunity lies in closing this distance—not through welfare alone, but through structural capability.
The Great Realignment
Look at the map of today’s global tensions:
This is a world in search of manufacturing geography, technological trust, and logistic alternatives.
India can anchor all three—if it chooses to.
No country in the 21st century has grown rich without mastering supply-chains, logistics, technology adoption and manufacturing scale. India missed the last manufacturing wave, but the next wave has not yet been claimed. The question is whether India will shape it or chase it.
Climate: The Silent Axis of Power
Climate is not an environmental issue anymore; it is an economic and political one. Nations that fail to climate-proof their agriculture, cities, coastlines, and energy systems will pay the cost in productivity loss, migration, inflation, food insecurity and social tension. Those that can combine decarbonisation with industrial strategy—like the U.S. with its Inflation Reduction Act or Europe with its Green Deal—will attract capital.
India, with its heatwaves, monsoon volatility, water stress and coastal exposure, cannot afford to treat climate as a side-note. Climate resiliency must become a central pillar of growth strategy.
The Decisive Decade
If the 1990s were India’s decade of liberalisation, the 2020s are its decade of redefinition. The next 10 years will determine whether India becomes a supply-chain hub, a technological power, a climate-resilient economy, and a credible global actor—or whether it remains a large market with small capability.
India is no longer a spectator. It is not even an emerging actor.
India is now a decisive variable in the future of global order.
The world has entered a new era without a map.
But India has the rare chance to become one of the cartographers.
Not by accident. Not by rhetoric. Not by pride.
But by building the systems, speed, institutions and capacities that a fragmented century demands.
This is India’s moment. Not to follow the world. Not even to catch up with it.
But to help shape what comes next.
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